Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index, and the number one Innovator in the world.
iPod - Apple's best innovation, introduced in 2001 and masterminded by Steve Jobs, combines outstanding design, easy-to-use interface, superb performance, and an experience like no other. Apple assumed the world’s number one innovative company position in 2005, and held it again in 2006 and 2007 in large part due to the exponential growth of iPod – aptly called the iPod phenomenon.
Apple has sold more iPods every year since its introduction. In 2007 alone, Apple sold more than 52 million iPods, 6 million more than in 2006, and eclipsed the cumulative total of 100 million iPods sold since introduction. Apple also introduced the all new iPod touch in 2007, and new models in 2008. Apple reported in the quarterly earnings conference call that although the introduction of the high-end iPod touch may have reduced the sales volume growth of iPod in 2007, it increased the average selling price.
On the one hand, Apple is poised to have a great year of iPhone sales - Apple Innovation blog and Innovation Index Group, Inc. estimate that Apple will sell more than 12 million iPhones in 2008. Most of the industry analysts estimate Apple to sell more than 8 million iPhones in 2008. But will the growth of iPhone business cannibalize the growth of iPod business?
The iPod sales volume growth peaked in 2004 with a growth of 469% from 2003. However, since 2004, the sales volume growth of iPods is in a free fall. In 2005, the iPod sales growth was 287% over 2004 sales; in 2006, the iPods sales growth was only 45% over 2005 sales; and finally, in 2007, the iPods sales growth was a meager 13% over 2006 sales. Of course, the sheer size of iPod sales is a huge number - over 52 million a year - and it is harder to keep up the triple-digit sales growth when you achieve the 800 lb gorilla status. However, iPod market share has remained relatively flat around the 70% mark in the last couple of years.
How can Apple turnaround iPod Sales Growth Engine?
First, we must ask the fundamental question on whether the overall market of MP3 players is big enough and growing fast enough for Apple to grow the iPod sales 20% to 40% a year? If the overall market of Mp3 players is say 90 million in 2008, for Apple to maintain its 70% market share, it must sell 63 million new iPods in 2008. This would amount to a 20% growth in iPod sales from 2007, and a positive turnaround from the 13% sales growth of 2007. For Apple to grow its lead to say 75% in the MP3 market, Apple would need to sell 67.5 million iPods in 2008, or a sales growth of about 28% from 2007. This would be an amazing turnaround. However, if Apple sells anything less than 60 million iPods, a growth of 15% only over 2007, the analysts would begin to wonder on whether iPod is a growth phenomenon anymore. It would mark two years of back to back growth of 13% and 15%, and could mark a real slowdown of iPod sales.
Can Apple drive consumer behavior further to buy more iPods in 2008, and create a bigger market of MP3 players - thereby growing the market share?
What is Apple doing to drive this behavior?
1. Apple has introduced the new iPod touch at lower prices. iPod touch is perhaps the best iPod ever made, and would find existing iPod owners upgrading to it, and also new buyers.
2. Apple has lowered the starting price of iPod Shuffle to only $49 so as to attract first-time iPod buyers.
3. Apple is experimenting with newer business models for the iTunes store (unconfirmed) so as to provide more value and more songs in a new iPod.
4. Apple has introduced the new pink model of iPod nano, and also expanded the partnership with Nike for the gym.
5. Finally, Apple is expected to reduce the iPod prices further when it launches iPhone 2.0 (unconfirmed) or in summer, 2008.
Can Apple provide a free iPod Shuffle to every new buyer of a MAC or Apple TV? In order to get the Shuffle for free, a buyer has to subscribe to an iTunes service for $9.99 or $14.99? Would that drive more sales of iPods?
Or does a higher sales volume really matter to Apple? If Apple can sell iPods at a higher sales price, that would still drive the overall sales revenue growth. And that's what the investors are really looking for. Knowing Apple though, it is not about to relinquish its firm foothold on the MP3 market anytime soon, and it would continue to play both ends of the market.
2008 - Can Apple turnaround the iPod sales growth engine?
Innovation Index Group, Inc. maintains a BUY rating on Apple with a Q4, 2008 price target of $235 to $250.
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About Innovation Index Group:
Innovation Index Group, Inc. is a new investment management company focused on systematically identifying, tracking and investing in the most innovative publicly traded companies in North America – collectively called the Innovation Index. We have developed the Innovation Index Fund, LLC as our first vehicle to invest in the Innovation Index. Over the past six years, the Innovation Index has generated a gross average annual return of 40%.
Innovation Index Group, Inc. and Innovation Index Fund LLC are registered California Corporations, and member of the Irvine Chamber of Commerce in Orange County. Further, Innovation Index Fund LLC is a private placement investment partnership organized under the California state regulations.
The Innovation Index Reports:
Invest in The Innovation Index - Innovation Index Fund tracks The Innovation Index
The Innovation Index closes 2007 at 66% - 2007 Annual Report on the Innovation Index
Top 50 Innovative Companies in the world - 2007 Report on Top 50 Innovative Companies
Annual Report - Chapter One - Total Innovation Activity - 2006 Annual Report One
Annual Report - Chapter Two - The Top Innovator - 2006 Annual Report Two
Annual Report - Chapter Three - The Innovation Insights - 2006 Annual Report Insights
Innovation and Stock Performance Correlation - The Innovation Index and Stock Performance
About The Innovation Index
The Innovation Index introduced in December 2006 is a weighted stock price index of the top 20 Innovators in
The Innovation Index returned 66% in 2007, and returned 174% over the previous five years (2002-2006). This assumes equal investment in each stock of The Innovation Index as of December 31, 2001. An average of $100 invested in The Innovation Index on December 31, 2001 returned $454 as of December 31, 2007. By comparison, $100 invested in S & P 500 returned 28% or $129, $100 invested in NASDAQ returned 34% or $136, and $100 invested in the Dow Jones Index returned 30% or $131 through December 31, 2007. The Innovation Index beats the S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones Index by more than seven times over the past six years.*
Alphabetical list of the Top 20 Innovators of The Innovation Index for 2008 and their stock ticker symbols:
3M Company - (NYSE: MMM)
Amazon.com, Inc. - (NASDAQ: AMZN)
America Movil - (NYSE: AMX)
Apple Inc. - (NASDAQ: AAPL)
AT&T Inc. - (NYSE: T)
Best Buy Co., Inc. - (NYSE: BBY)
Cisco Systems, Inc. - (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Costco Wholesale Corporation - (NASDAQ: COST)
eBay Inc. - (NASDAQ: EBAY)
General Electric Co. - (NYSE: GE)
Google Inc. - (NASDAQ: GOOG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. - (NYSE: HPQ)
Intel Corporation - (NASDAQ: INTC)
International Business Machines Corp. - (NYSE: IBM)
Merck & Co., Inc. - (NYSE: MRK)
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD)
Microsoft Corporation - (NASDAQ: MSFT)
NIKE, Inc. - (NYSE: NKE)
Research In Motion Limited - (NASDAQ: RIMM)
The Proctor & Gamble Company - (NYSE: PG)
The Innovation Index will analyze the positions and standings of the Top 20 Innovators at the end of each year. For 2008, there will be no further changes in The Innovation Index.
Disclaimer: The Innovation Index Group, Inc. invests in the stocks comprising The Innovation Index.*Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results