AWS Outage & Customer Readiness

Reddit, Foursquare, EngineYard and Quora were among the many sites that went down recently due to a rather prolonged outage of Amazon's cloud services. On Thursday April 21, When Amazon Elastic Block Store (EBS) went offline, it took many of its Web and database servers depending on that storage down. With Amazon working aggressively to set this back right, on Sunday April 24, most of the services were restored back . As promised and as would be expected, Amazon has now come out with a detailed explanation describing what went wrong, and explaining why the failure was so widely felt and why it took that much time to restore back all the services. Some say that measured against Amazon’s promised availability, this lengthy outage would mean that Amazon may need to maintain full availability for more than a decade to adhere to their promised availability service level commitments.

Now, let’s examine what happened and how this happened. To start with some basics: Amazon has its facilities spread out around the world. Most users would know that its cloud computing data centers are in five different locations. Virginia, Northern California, Ireland, Singapore, and Tokyo. These centers are so architected that within each of these regions, the cloud services are further separated into what Amazon calls Availability Zone. The availability zones are within themselves self contained with physically and logically separate groups of computers setup therein. Amazon explains that such an arrangement helps customer choose the right level of redundancy as appropriate to their win needs. Such a design with a spectrum of options helps customers choose the right level of robustness also when they for a premium choose to host them in multiple regions. The logic here is that hosting in multiple availability zones within a same region must provide comparable robustness (as in hosting across multiple regions) but would come with a much better economics benefitting the customer.

Amazon offers several services as part of this arrangement. Amongst those services, Elastic Block Store(EBS) is an important service. With EBS, Amazon provides mountable disk volumes to virtual machines using the more well known Elastic Compute Cloud(EC2). This is quite attractive to customers, as Amazon with this service, provides the virtual machines with huge amount of reliable storage – typically this gets used for database hosting and the like. The powerfulness of this feature can be seen by the fact that while this can be used from EC2, another Amazon feature called Amazon Relational Database Service( RDS) also uses this as a data store. As an added feature for its services, Amazon has designed this feature for high availability purposes and replicates data through EBS between multiple systems. Given the volume and variety involved therein, this process is highly automated. In such an arrangement, if for some reason an EBS node loses connection form its replica, instantly an alternate storage within the same zone is made available to maintain connectivity.

As per Amazon, while doing routine maintenance operations in Virgnia operations on April 21, engineers were trying to make a change in network configuration to the zone. As part of the process, traffic to the routers affected apparently got moved into a low capacity network as against getting moved onto a backup. The low capacity network, is meant for handling inter node communication and not large scale replication/data transfer internally between the system and so the additional traffic made the network malfunction. With the primary network brought down for maintenance and the secondary network completely mal-functioning the EBS nodes lost their ability to replicate for want of nodes. This is where the unintended consequence of automation began to rear its ugly head. Every system in this network acted as if they are at risk and began to frenetically look for available nodes with free space for replication. While Amazon tried to restore the primary network, damage has been by then done, with all the available space within the cluster were already used, while some remaining nodes continued their search for nodes with free space available – while such nodes with free space were not available.

With a massive deadlock of nodes trying to find replicas, while there were not nodes with free space, impacted the control system’s performance. The control system performance issue severely impacted execution of new service requests like creating a new volume. A long back up began to get created for the slow control system to act upon and this with time reached catastrophic proportions, with some requests beginning to get returned with fail messages. Now, comes the second but the most crucial part of the outage – unlike other services, the control systems span across the region and not the individual availability zones. The net impact was therefore experienced across different availability zones. Remember the idea of Single Point Of Failure? That was proven here in its full might.

Slowly and deliberately, Amazon began the course correction – by beginning to tend to the control system and by adding more nodes to the cluster. Over time, the backlogs on the control system began to get cleared and this took painful efforts and a lot of time in the process. Outages of public cloud systems have made news in the past but clearly with time, the body of knowledge and maturity levels ought to improve things. Cloud service providers make high availability as the cornerstone of their offerings but this outage would in many ways, put such claims to question. Even while this outage happened with Amazon Virginia operations, there were many users of AWS, who managed to maintain availability of their system. A majority of those installations had fall back in terms of multiple regions, multiple zone coverage. Such moves necessarily bring cost, complexity equation into consideration.

It’s a little odd to see that when the problem of non availability of nodes happened, Amazon almost began to get into a denial –of-service attacks within their environment . Amazon now claims that this aspect of crisis related actions have been set right but one may have to wait till next outage to see what else could give way It may be noted that Amazon cloud services suffered a major outage in 2008 – the failure pattern looks somewhat similar upon diagnosis.Clearly, the systems need to operate differently under different circumstances – while it’s normal for nodes to keep replicating on storage/access concerns, the system ought to exhibit different behavior with a different nature of crisis. With the increasing adoption of public cloud services, certainly the volume, complexity and range of workloads would increase and the systems would get tested under varying circumstances for availability and reliability. All business and IT users would seek answers to such questions as they consider moving their workloads onto the cloud

It is interesting to see how Netflix, a poster user of Amazon cloud services managed to survive this outage. Netflix says,” When we re-designed for the cloud this Amazon failure was exactly the sort of issue that we wanted to be resilient to. Our architecture avoids using EBS as our main data storage service, and the SimpleDB, S3 and Cassandra services that we do depend upon were not affected by the outage”. Netflix admits that their service ran without intervention but with a higher than usual error rate and higher latency than normal through the morning, which is the low traffic time of day for Netflix streaming. Amongst the major engineering decisions that they implemented to avoid such outages includes designing things as stateless applications and maintain multiple redundant hot copies of the data spread across zones. Netflix calls their solution –“ Cloud Solutions for the Cloud” as the claim here is that instead of fork-lifting the existing applications from their data centers to Amazon's and simply using EC2, with their approach they believe that they have fully embraced the cloud paradigm. Essentially, Netflix has automated its zone fail-over and recovery process, hosted its services in multiple regions while reducing its dependence on EBS.

Clearly there are ways to get the best of cloud – except that some of these may have different economics and would call for greater ability to engineer and manage the operations. Amazon may have to increase the level of transparency in terms of their design and the operational metrics need to cover many more areas of operations as against the narrow set of metrics that users get to see now. To sum up , I would hesitate to call AWS as failure of the cloud but this journey into the cloud would call for more preparation and better thought out design to be in place from user’s side.

Bill Harmon from Microsoft's Digital Crimes Unit to Speak at June Event


The Global Leaders is pleased to announce Bill Harmon as a featured speaker for our June 7th networking reception.  As associate general counsel for the Microsoft Digital Crimes Unit, Bill Harmon leads a worldwide team of lawyers, investigators, technical analysts and other specialists working to make the Internet safer for everyone.  Through game-changing legal solutions, enforcement, partnerships, cooperation and technology innovation, the Digital Crimes Unit works to defend against digital crime and abuse, protect children from technology-facilitated crimes, advance safety and integrity in the online advertising marketplace and ensure security and safety in cloud computing and emerging technologies.  The team works in cooperation with product, security, law enforcement, government, industry and advocacy stakeholders around the world to develop and implement groundbreaking legal and technological solutions to protect children online and to help stop ID theft, malicious code, botnets, spam, spyware, click fraud and other forms of online fraud.  

Before leading the Digital Crimes Unit, Harmon was the general manager for Microsoft’s Global Standards Engagement Team, working to drive worldwide standards activity for all of Microsoft’s business divisions, including Windows Client, Windows Server and Microsoft Business Division.  In that role, Harmon managed Microsoft’s Global Standards group, helping the company develop a strong presence in international standards bodies.  He also served as Associate General Counsel for Microsoft’s Intellectual Property and Licensing Team, advising the company on patent issues related to licensing, portfolio development and litigation. 

Prior to joining Microsoft in 2003, Harmon worked as a private practice attorney in San Francisco for eight years and spent five years in engineering and marketing in National Semiconductor's Local Area Network Division. 

Harmon graduated from Santa Clara University with a Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering, a Master’s degree in Business Administration, and a Juris Doctor degree in law. In addition his role at Microsoft, Harmon is an adjunct law professor at Seattle University.

Reinvention Week 6: Remembering the Burn

As I continue my process of working from within to reinvent, I am thinking back to Burning Man, a carnival of experience that can't help but activate one's Warrior of Aliveness. Drawing 50,000 or so people now each Labor Day week in the desert of Nevada, Burning Man is an experiment in living--and creativity--unmatched on the planet right now. What do you need to burn that will help you feel more alive?

Let me share a piece of my experience a few years back, in a story I call...

Letting It Burn

It was Sunday, the last official night of the week-long festival in the desert known as Burning Man, and rumor had it that they were going to burn down the Mausoleum.

Aaron, Jess, Bea and I headed out from our camp on our miraculously still functioning bicycles. The Mausoleum was one of the most beautiful structures I had ever seen on earth, and attending its destruction would be the perfect ending to a week of unprecedented experiences for me and my friends.

Darkness was descending as we pedaled toward the great desert Playa. A sandstorm kicked up out of nowhere, and we put on our goggles and masks and headlamps, as we had done several times in the past few days. But the airborne sand thickened to such an intensity that we soon had to abandon our bikes and set out by foot. Unable to see more than a few inches in front of our faces, our hands on each other's shoulders so not to separate, we slowly walked in what we hoped was the general direction of the Mausoleum.

Now, the truth was, even during daylight, the Mausoleum had been extremely difficult to find in the vast desert. We kept walking, assuming we would run into some of the thousands of other Burning Man participants we believed to be nearby. But minutes turned into miles. The sand was unrelenting, and we came across no one. I drank my last sandy swallow from my water flask. We had lost all bearing of where we came from and where we were heading.

“Do you think we should turn around?” Aaron asked, slight panic creeping into his voice. It was hard for us to hear each other, both because of the sand muffling all sound except its own blowing and because we spoke through surgical masks or bandanas over our mouths.

“Does anyone even know how to get back?” asked Bea. We would have looked at each other for the answer but we could see nothing and already knew the answer was no.

“Let's keep going,” I said. “What choice do we have?” So we kept moving, four voyagers making our way through what felt like a cave in the middle of the earth, somewhere in the great expanse of the Nevada desert.

* * *

The adventure began a few days before: We were lucky to find perhaps the last available RV in all of Northern California, and six of us first-timers packed up and headed out from San Francisco to Burning Man, the week-long festival-carnival in the otherwise uninhabitable desert of northern Nevada. Read the rest of the story here.

CIOs & Cloud Centric IT Organization Refresh Strategies

As enterprises concentrate on growth, they remain vigilant about costs and operational efficiencies – coming out of recession, even in times of high growth and radiant optimism. Such a model of growth provides IT with a lot of fresh opportunities to adapt and innovate . More than ever, this new model of growth mandates IT to raise its strategic importance to the business rather than just be content to focus on delivery of generic business plans. In many ways the tenor of change is set in with such changing context – With the continuing tight budgets, the CIO’s are now getting forced to” think and act different” – one of the critical ways that can be tried is to follow the time tested model of being creative in discarding the past while taking a bold and fresh approach in creating a new future of IT within enterprises.

The classic way of looking into conceptualizing a new IT organization and its contribution to the enterprise starts by thinking aloud typically by asking the question “What If?” Now in the radar of every CIO and IT organization, Cloud happens to be mostly at the top where some expect more than half of new workloads to naturally move to the cloud besides the expectation that a majority of applications and infrastructure inside the enterprises would move to the cloud over the next few years. That forces the hand of enterprises in ensuring quick think through of the future possibilities for IT in terms of alternate models and the cloud.

Let’s face the facts : CIO’s of large organizations have to manage the burden of the past in terms of legacy systems, data and the processes set in there. They come with huge costs in terms of maintenance and in many cases impose restrictions on flexibility and extensibility. More importantly, in many cases, these systems come in the way of contributing to business agility in an increasingly dynamic world of business across industries,

The cloud model is increasingly being adopted by companies looking to lower cost and improve scalability and enhance flexibility. Many different models of cloud adoption abound varied by size, maturity, expectations, nature of the industry etc. But all agree on one need – cloud services need to be well integrated with existing legacy systems. Some are choosing a hybrid approach between online and on-premise services as a low-risk way to test the benefits. To work, these cloud services need to be well integrated with existing legacy systems.

Possibilities include selectively letting go of the past and unlocking resources and in realigning priorities and setting new directions towards creating more space for innovation and greater business value. Some CIO’s see this as an opportunity to look beyond delivery models towards getting strategic advantage to business through sophisticated information and insights. Cloud centric technologies are a big driver in enabling IT to take center stage in support of innovation, business growth and delivered value.

For enterprises and the CIO, this journey is replete with possibilities, challenges where the upside swing could be alluringly high but the downside fall could be steep if not carefully strategized and executed on those strategies well enough. After all, we are living in an era where technology edge is almost equivalent to business edge and this warrants a new approach to business technology architecture and strategy. That’s when Saugatech came with the interview with Mike Wilens, on Fidelity’s cloud journey , I got real interested.

In a very detailed discussion Mike covers a series of topics and brings out the fact that while people talk a lot about lock-in, reliability, and security in the cloud , these are manageable with good engineering and good planning and it’s not really all that scary – cloud is indeed doable and can be a key enabler for business innovation and enterprise agility. The key here is that the cloud is indeed revolutionary in how we think about application delivery and infrastructure.

In discussions published as part of cloud leadership strategies, Mike outlines the approach to the cloud, the execution plan and alignment to business needs. Covering all aspects of cloud journey within Fidelity, there are lots of important insights coming out of actual experience. Starting with foundational issues, such as standards, cost avoidance and experimenting with new capabilities in the Cloud, the discussion then extends to centralization versus decentralization. Inside Fidelity, the cloud model is slowly altering the degree of decentralization with a view to lower costs but not compromise on ability to innovate around business needs. The key insight here is dealing with reducing risk and cost while not inhibiting innovation that can lead to top line growth.
Moving onto the more interesting aspects of cloud and business the discussions revolve around business innovation, governance frameworks and balancing opportunity and risk. In areas like collaboration and social computing tools, the logic behind determination of what can be used internally and taking into account the regulatory standards, the usage of such tools externally requires very carefully considered solutions. Wilens points out that the standards that are evolving to help public clouds power down the economies of scale are now becoming available for private clouds as well.

Cloud can be a big platform for testing out /piloting new ideas and can be scaled out and scaled up – at any point in time this pilot footprint on cloud should be actively pursued. For example, he believes that migration to mobile devices and the related implications for the presentation layers of any technology infrastructure will be implemented within the cloud based technologies, private or public. Similarly co-opting the startup partners to try out new operational/innovative models and make them scale up on the cloud infuses new dynamics in developing partnerships and new offerings. Fidelity has found that private Cloud portals can deliver to its clients access to financial information, while still maintaining the on-premise, legacy, mainframe record keeping systems. Here comes the reinforcement, that hybrid solutions leveraging the data of on-premise systems will soon become the norm.

The best practices talked about ranges from adopting de-facto cloud standards, for example cloud infrastructure could be coalescing around the LAMP stack. Some other notable insights include:
- Creating shared services with a common platform, look and feel
- Use of cloud as testing environment
- Portioning of clouds – confidential /mission critical data where to keep -on-premise or outside
- What volumes of new workloads to be pushed onto the cloud – particularly in long standing industries like financial services where lot of data tend to be in old but reliable platforms

Operating at both ends of the stacks with a robust risk management plan and governance makes cloud an indispensable framework for IT, Innovation and Business Agility. I recommend reading this for demonstrating that with a good strategy and well laid out execution on such strategy, even in a fast moving but highly regulated industry with a lot of legacy system in place, clouds can be successfully and progressively deployed with demonstrable results in providing flexibility and making business agile.

Using Innovation to Fight Cybercrime and Save Our Children


Ernie Allen
Technology plays a critical role in the recovery of missing children and the fight against cybercrime.  Ernie Allen, President & CEO of both the National and International Centers for Missing & Exploited Children, will share his insights June 7th,

George Bickerstaff, Co-Founder & Chairman of The Global Leaders, announced that Mr. Allen would be a keynote speaker at their June 7th networking reception to be held at The Yale Club in New York City.  “We are really excited to have Mr. Allen join us; not only is he an innovator, but under his leadership the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children has recovered over 160,000 missing children which represents a recovery rate from 62% in 1990 to 97% today.  A large part of his success has been the ability to leverage technology in the battle against our children.”

In a recent conversation with The Washington Post, Mr. Allen reflected on his career at NCMEC and ICMEC.

His smartest move:  "Recognizing early on that technology would play a key role in revolutionizing the way America searches for missing children and that technology would also become a significant component of the victimization of children. The partnership that we have built with the technology industry has enabled NCMEC to obtain and use cutting-edge technologies to address problems as well as anticipate problems before they emerge."

His legacy:  "In 1984, police could enter information about stolen cars, stolen guns and even stolen horses into the FBI's national crime computer, but not stolen children. That is no longer the case. More missing children come home safely today and more is being done today to protect children than any time in the nation's history. Our recovery rate today is 97 percent, compared to 62 percent in 1962.”

What lies ahead:  "There are still thousands of children who do not make it home each year and more who fall victim to sexual exploitation. An estimated 800,000 children are reported missing each year, more than 2,000 children every day. An estimated one in five girls and one in 10 boys will be sexually victimized before age 18. Every child deserves a safe childhood. A lot more needs to be done."
Mr. Allen will share more of his insights on how businesses, as well as human rights organizations, can leverage technology to their advantage.   Persons who purchase a package to The World Innovation Forum through The Global Leaders at  http://tgl-world-inovation-forum-package.eventbrite.com/  will be able to attend the reception for free; for individuals who wish to attend just the reception they can register at http://tgleaders060711.eventbrite.com/.  For more information about The Global Leaders visit http://www.tgleaders.com
“This is a great opportunity for our top leaders to hear an important message about leadership, innovation and social responsibility”, added Bickerstaff.  “At our last event we had over 150 senior level executives and officials who during their careers have led over 300 companies headquartered in 26 countries, supporting 57 industries, with revenue exceeding $480 billion; we’re expecting a similar crowd at this event on June 7th.  I’d like to encourage any executive attending The World Innovation Forum or who will be in the Greater New York area to attend and hear Ernie’s message.”

For additional information on The World Innovation Forum, the June networking reception or if your company is interested in sponsorship, please contact Jayme Porkolab at jayme.porkolab@tgleaders.com.

Reinvention Week 5: Poetic Interlude

For a vault of audio to stimulate innovation, click here. For more on creativity from Adam, use search field (top left) or click on keywords (bottom right) on his Innovation on my Mind blog.


Let Me Tell You Something

What if I lifted both of my arms
up from the sides of my body
dug my elbows into the wall
and catapulted myself forward, feet first
toward you?
Would that lure you from the whirl?

What if you were distracted by a fly near your eye
and you turned to see my body falling on its spine
my body crawling one vertebra at a time
toward you?
Would that disturb your pattern of chatter?

Let me tell you something:

I would like to tear the colors off my skin
and spread their yolk over my face
until I spit rainbows

I would like to turn to the wall,
arch my body
and throw back my head,
until you see the spidery reflections of my lashes on the ceiling,
until they fall like warm sugar into your eyes
and become questions you already know
the answers to

I would like
to love you

~Adam Shames

Belated Thanks to MySQL Community

Tungsten Replicator won O'Reilly Application of the Year at the 2011 O'Reilly MySQL Conference, together with Percona's XtraBackup.  Giuseppe Maxia also received an award for Community Contributor of the Year. Having now worked with Giuseppe for almost half a year I know from personal experience his reward is truly deserved.  All in all we had a very good week, especially since the replicator award was a complete surprise.

Things were so busy during and after the MySQL conference it was difficult to write a timely thank-you note. I hope it's not too late to thank the committee now for both awards.

More importantly, I would like to thank the MySQL community as a whole.  Replicated data is the lifeblood of MySQL applications.  There has been a long history of innovation both within the MySQL engineering team as well as the community as a whole.  Working on replication for MySQL is a bit like building cars to operate on the German Autobahn.  If you can compete here you can compete anywhere.

Settling in at code.google.com

Tungsten Replicator code is now fully open source and published on code.google.com.  Here is our new home in case you do not yet know it:  http://code.google.com/p/tungsten-replicator.  I hope you will visit our new digs and admire the furniture.

The fact that the replicator is now fully open source under GPL V2 is kind of old news, so I would instead like to talk about something else:  our initial experience setting up the replicator project at code.google.com.  In a nutshell, it has been excellent.   There are several things that stand out.
  1. The site is incredibly easy to use.   You can customize the home page, add members, add external links, etc. quickly and without having to resort to help. 
  2. It has everything we need.  The front page is excellent--clean but also all the information users need to get started.  Useful features like issue trackers and Google Groups are cleanly integrated.   
  3. It is very fast.  
  4. So far it seems to have just the right mix of open and closed for our project.  Anybody can post to the groups or log issues, but only committers on the project have write access to code and ability to move bugs through issue status. 
The only problems I have run into personally involve SVN code access.  For example, say you check out using the http rather than https URL as in:
svn co http://tungsten-replicator.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/builder
If you edit something and try to check in you get a message like the following: 
$ svn commit -m "This does not work"
svn: Commit failed (details follow):
svn: Server sent unexpected return value (405 Method Not Allowed) in response to MKACTIVITY request for '/svn/!svn/act/8d94e398-83ba-46f3-aae2-bd10cb707c4b'
svn: Your commit message was left in a temporary file:
svn: '/home/rhodges/google/tungsten-replicator/builder/svn-commit.tmp'
This message is definitely in the "not helpful" category.  Perhaps it is some sort of defense against evildoers.  However, this might be subversion behavior and nothing to do with Google.  If you receive such a message, run svn info to check the SVN URL.  If you see http instead of https you have found the cause.   Unfortunately the cure seems to be to check out again properly in another location, copy in your changes, and then commit.

Site credentials are a more insidious problem.  Android phone users need to have a Google GMail account to access updates and download apps.  (At least that's true for my provider.)  Browsers like Firefox do not keep accounts separated properly, so you may run into account confusion when you first get started.  On Mac OS X you can get the wrong account in your keychain, which in turn leads to more confusing error messages.  This is a Google problem.  There is a creeping form of web single-signon using Google, Facebook, and other accounts as identifiers with unintended side-effects for work and personal interactions.  It makes you wonder what other problems are out there.

But I digress. As far as the project is concerned the issues look pretty minor.  At this point I would recommend code.google.com wholeheartedly for open source projects.

p.s., Tungsten Replicator 2.0.2 is on the way.  More on that in another post.

Who We Are

The Global Leaders (TGL) network encompasses over 300,000 senior level executives from business, government, education and philanthropy.  Many are actively involved in our digital communities as well as TGL InPerson.  The recent TGL networking event in San Francisco hosted 200 executives who during their careers led over 300 companies, headquartered in 26 countries, supporting 57 industries, with revenue exceeding $480 billion, assets of $3.1trillion and employing 1 million.


Our proprietary platform allows members to 'network with purpose'; reaching out to their global peers in a private environment protected from unwanted intrusions.  Members can search for investment capital, collaborate with peers & customers, find talent, seek advice and much, much more. 

Our members not only have access to the brain trust of today's most prominent leaders and networking tools, but to exclusive discounts for top business events including the lowest prices to the World Innovation Forum and The World Business Forum, which we co-sponsor.  All of our meetings and conferences feature TGL InPerson which allows you to choose who you want to interact with before, during, and after the event. 

Check out some of our newest features highlighted below or visit www.tgleaders.com to see how you too can  'network with purpose'.

TGL Exchange = Business
This exciting new feature on The Global Leaders is designed to facilitate business development for our members.  TGL Exchange brings together both sides of the equation for a successful business endeavor:  Opportunity (TGL Deal) and Money (TGL Investment Fund).  Read More



Ask The Global Expert


Our most popular feature, Ask The Global Expert, is like having a team of experienced consultants at your fingertips!  Members can direct questions to specific global experts to seek advice, best practices, find emerging trends, supplier recommendations and more.  Read More



Looking for Talent?
It's important to make sure that your job posting is seen by the right people.  Our member network is an exclusive group of seasoned executives; exactly the audience you want to communicate your search needs to.  Read More



Reinvention Week 4: Mission Mantras

For current creativity insights, click here or here. For more on creativity from Adam, use search field (top left) or click on keywords (bottom right) on his Innovation on my Mind blog.

I'm in the process of reinvention and I'm asking the question: What does it take to change my internal identity in such a way that sustained change--real reinvention--can happen? I went inward and Eastward last week to yoga and a yogi, and was left with the message to create my own mantras.

Now when I just write the word "Mantra"--which simply is a repeated, often sacred phrase or sound used by meditators for thousands of years to create transformation--an automatic thought is activated in me. Actually several. That I am risking embarrassment by sharing this. That I live in Chicago and no longer Northern California, and I shouldn't make people here cringe. That I should worry about my reputation as a professional consultant. That I should give up this "reinvention" idea because as much as it sounds good and is what "all innovators are doing" it requires changing something within, which is hard to talk about or admit to or do at all without worrying about a whole host of implications.

You see, I have many automatic thoughts whose goals appear to be to keep me in a life of safety, resist any risk and change, and shut out any ideas of living a more impactful life.

And I know you do too. So I'm asking you--yes, you, reading this right now--what automatic thoughts do you have that are keeping you small and safe? And more importantly, if you could silence those thoughts and live from an identity that would be closer to your real calling, what identity would that be?

Despite my automatic thoughts shaming me for weakness at having to resort to mantras, those thoughts are full of crap. My goal is to be a Warrior--not Worrier--of Aliveness. A warrior must use whatever can work to achieve his mission. And I just don't see how I can change my internal chatter without the proactive, creative act of re-wiring my messages to myself. Think about it--what is stopping you from being more of the YOU-you-want-to-be in the world? In large part it's our internal mantras, our repeated phrases born of protection and fear. So my goal is to change them.

Here's my challenge to you: Send me some of the mantras befitting the identity you want to live out of. You can share them anonymously (or not) via comment or by email to me. I want to hear them. And I need to create and hear mine, again and again, to myself, every day, in order for transformation to happen.

While historically a mantra can be anything from a simple sound or phrase or a more detailed affirmation, right now I need my mantras to reflect my mission. What does it mean to me to take on this identity I'm calling a Warrior of Aliveness? I need to be reminded, again and again, of who I am and what I am up to in this world. So here are some of my mission mantras that I am repeating again and again, morning and night, to rewire my automatic thoughts. What are yours?

To live as my most awakened self To help others live more as their true selves To discover and follow my passions To feel more alive and be in the moment To eviscerate the needless negative To stretch others and myself to actively make a difference in the world To say yes to that which enlivens To take out my sword and slice the saboteur who keeps me closed and small To be and help others to be a creator and not just a spectator To open my heart and feel more, rather than numb myself To be excited about life To bring more love into the world To experience the world and try new things rather than hide To release the negative and embrace positive To get off the leash of my monkey mind To be in the now rather than escape and distract myself To speak the truth and help others speak their own truth To take bigger risks To be a model for possibility To embrace change To stop pleasing others at the cost of my own principles and passions To express myself boldly, creatively and confidently...

Tony Hsieh, CEO of Zappos.com, to speak at World Innovation Forum

Tony Hsieh, CEO of Zappos and author of "Delivering Happiness:  A Path to Profits, Passion and Purpose", will be one of the featured speakers at the World Innovation Forum to be held In New York City on June 7th and 8th.

Mr. Hsieh is revered as an innovator and a celebrity in entrepreneurial circles.  He sold Zappos for more than $1 billion to Amazon.com in 2009 and his book spent 27 weeks on The New York Times best-seller list last year.  Last Sunday the New York Times ran a feature story on Mr. Hsieh which speaks about his background and some of his unorthodox approaches to business.  His success has been built in part on his ability to anatomize the way people crave connections with others, and turn those insights into a business plan.

If you would like to see Tony Hsieh in person, register now for The World Innovation Forum  The Global Leaders has a special package which includes admission to the 2-day conference, premium seating and a "members only" networking reception the evening of June 7th at The Yale Club.  Register today for only $1,390!  The lowest price available for the WIF representing a savings of over $950 and the TGL package will give you the opportunity to network with your global peers at The Yale Club.  The low price is only for those who act before April 30th!  If you would like more information about the event or a sponsorship package, contact Jayme Porkolab at jayme.porkolab@tgleaders.com.  

Why Apple is a BUY at these levels

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has corrected 8% from the 52 week high of $364.90 set on Feb 16, 2011. 



Apple 8% Correction from high of $364.90 set on Feb 16, 2011

Apple is set to announce record quarterly earnings this month on the heels of the hot launch of the iPad 2 and iPhone 4 on Verizon. The average quarterly estimate is $5.33 EPS on $23.18 billion of quarterly sales - a spectacular growth of 60.10% in earnings, and 71.70% in sales. Compare this to the quarterly earnings growth of 20.80% for the average S&P 500 company. Thus, Apple earnings growth is poised to be more than three times that of the average S&P 500 company. 

Apple Muddied Picture

Apple's current P/E is 18.69, while the forward P/E is only 12.56 - a significant undervaluation of Apple's future potential. What's wrong with this picture? Here are possible explanations: 1. Retail investor is holding out until after the earnings are announced 2. Current NASDAQ-100 rebalancing that reduces Apple's 20% stake to around 12%, and surrounding liquidation by funds 3. Steve Jobs medical leave, and speculation about his health 4. Downgrade by JMP Securities analyst.

Apple Quarterly Milestones

Apple has made significant announcements during the last quarter, which should translate to real growth in quarterly sales. Key Apple milestones include:

1. iPad 2 launch in U.S.A on March 11

2. iPad 2 launch in 25 countries on March 25

3. Revved up MacBook Pro launch on February 24

4. iPhone 4 launch on Verizon Wireless on February 2

5. App Store growth juggernaut on January 22


What will be Apple's earnings this quarter?

Three earnings scenarios are plausible:

1. Apple beats the average earnings estimates of $5.33 by at least 50 cents, and announces in the vicinity of $5.83 (40% probability).

2. Apple makes the average earnings estimate of $5.33 (50% probability).

3. Apple misses the average earnings estimate by 10 cents and announces $5.23 earnings (least likely, 10% probability).

Accounting for all probabilities, Apple's mean earnings will be around $5.52 for this quarter; this will increase its prior 12 months earnings to $20.10. If Apple's current P/E were to remain the same at 18.69, Apple stock price should appreciate to $375.57.

There you have it: If Apple delivers reasonable quarterly earnings of $5.52, and current P/E of 18.69 remains constant, Apple's stock price should jump to $375.57.

What's the upside?

Some analysts estimate Apple's earnings to be as high as $5.98.  If Apple were to kill its quarterly earnings, and make this high estimate, watch out from above! This will increase Apple's prior 12 months earnings further to $20.56, or fetch an Apple stock price of $384.27! (at the current P/E of 18.69)

On an average, Apple has beaten the average earnings estimate by 20.3% during the previous four quarters. If Apple were to match this average, Apple could deliver whopping surprise earnings of $6.42. Imagine that! This will increase Apple's prior 12 months earnings to $21, or fetch an even higher Apple stock price of $392.49! (at the current P/E of 18.69)

Thus, we have three possibilities of where the Apple stock price could be post earnings:

1. $375.57 (for mean earnings of $5.52)

2. $384.27 (for analyst high earnings of $5.98)

3. $392.49 (for an Apple high earnings of $6.42)

Analysts are even more bullish

The mean target for Apple's 12 month price as per 46 analysts is $424.80, which is higher than all three possibilities above. The median is $440.00. The high target is $550.00, and the low target is $200.00. The high-low 12 month average target price is also $375.
Apple Price Target Summary

Mean Target: 424.80
Median Target: 440.00
High Target: 550.00
Low Target: 200.00
No. of Brokers: 46

Data provided by Thomson/First Call

Caveat: Stock Price Drops after earnings

Apple stock has not done well immediately after earnings announcement. On an average, Apple stock has actually dropped 4.48% post earnings during the previous four quarters, before it begins appreciating. This could mean that further downside to Apple stock is entirely possible after the earnings are announced this quarter. However, one can argue that Apple stock has already corrected significantly this quarter, and is priced for perfection post earnings to go up. 

Where will Apple stock price end up after quarterly earnings call is anybody's guess... For instance, if Steve Jobs participates in the earnings call, the investors will welcome him and get excited about Apple's future. All eyes will be on the iPad 2 quarterly sales, Mac shipments, iPod sales, iPhone 4 growth and importantly, margins. If Apple were to hit a home run on all of these, Apple stock has nowhere to go, but up! We do know one thing for sure: At current price point of $335.06 as of Friday's close, Apple is quite undervalued! Even if the Apple stock remains undervalued and the P/E of 18.69 stays constant, it is reasonable to expect at least a 12% upside in the near term post earnings. $375 could be just round the corner!

Apple's Innovation Strategy

How does Apple, the #1 innovative company in the world, innovate and create game-changing innovations such as the iPod, iTunes, iPhone, iPad and more? What is Apple's secret recipe for innovation success?


Download Apple's Innovation Strategy, and learn how Apple became the #1 innovator through:

• Creativity and Innovation
• Innovation in Products
• Innovation in Business Model
• Innovation in Customer Experience
• Innovation and Leadership
• Steve Jobs Visionary Leadership
Revised in 2011! Steve Jobs interview

Learn more...



Entertainment Executive, Brian Altounian, Added as Speaker for Los Angeles Event.


Brian Altounian will share his unique perspective on business development in the fast-paced world of the Entertainment Industry at The Global Leaders’ networking reception on May 11th in Los Angeles, CA.

“We’re pleased to add Brian Altounian to our speaker line-up for our first networking event in Los Angeles”, stated Jim Gitney, CEO and Co-Founder of The Global Leaders.  “Brian has a fascinating background that includes business development, finance, operations and administration.  He has successfully applied those skills to a variety of start-ups, Fortune 100 companies, and public and private organizations”.
“Brian will be a great addition to our other two speakers:  Kim Shepherd, CEO of Decision Toolbox, and Carol Bradford, Senior Counsel to and Charitable Advisor at the California Community Foundation (CCF)” added Jim.  “All three have a distinct message to convey about innovation as it applies to leadership, business development and thriving in today’s business environment. “  To register for the event, go to http://www.jujama.com/tgl-inperson/5112011LAX.aspx .
Brian has worked extensively in the entertainment and high-tech industries, the bread and butter of Los Angeles' commercial culture. He has held management positions including Director, Vice President, President, and CEO. He recently concluded his tenure as a Board Member and Audit Committee Chairman of Cereplast, Inc. (CERP.OTC). In addition, he has served on the board of Machine Talker (MTKN.OTC) and as Chairman of the Board of Directors of XsunX, Inc. (XSNX.OTC).
His expertise is in the area of developing corporate infrastructure and preparing early-stage companies to access capital through the public equity markets and he has provided marketing support to a number of technology companies such as Warp9 (WNYN.OTC), Imaging3, Inc. (IMGG.OTC) and BioSolar, Inc (BSRC.OTC).
Prior to his adventures in the high-tech arena, he spent 12 years in the entertainment industry with a successful consulting practice, advising entertainment companies in the areas of finance, administration, operations and business development. His clients have included Disney Interactive, Two Oceans Entertainment Group, Papazian-Hirsch Entertainment, The Santa Barbara Grand Opera Association, International Documentary Association, In-Finn-Ity Productions and many others. He also held senior management positions in-house at Lynch Entertainment, Time Warner Interactive, National Geographic Television and WQED. He was Consulting Producer on Random 1, a reality television series that debuted in November 2005 on the A&E Network and Executive Producer of the award-winning documentary feature film, Lost in Woonsocket.
To register for the event go to http://www.jujama.com/tgl-inperson/5112011LAX.aspx and to learn more about The Global Leaders visit http://www.tgleaders.com.  For more information about the event or if you are interested in sponsorship, contact Jayme Porkolab at 914-519-8071.

Reinvention, Week 3: Seeking the Power Source

For recent cultural creativity news and views, click here or here. For more on creativity from Adam, use search field (top left) or click on keywords (bottom right) on his Innovation on my Mind blog.

Since continuous "reinvention" has emerged as a hallmark of innovation in the 21st century (and I'm overdue for one), I'm in the process of attempting an actual reinvention. It's Week 3 with a new identity--which I'm calling the Warrior of Aliveness--and I've quickly realized that to think differently and be guided by a real shift of belief from within, I need fuel. I need to plug into some kind of power source befitting a Warrior to keep the process on track.

In my 20s, I remember reading the 20th century spiritual classic Autobiography of a Yogi, which introduced many westerners to eastern enlightenment through the life of Paramahansa Yogananda, the first yoga master of India to take up permanent residence in the West. Maybe, I thought, I needed to revisit Yogananda's wisdom to find a renewable power source.

I started by going to several yoga classes, which have generally revealed that I am pretty fat and lazy, with an unfocused mind that tends to drift and fall into its default, un-warrior-like patterns of distraction and complaints.

So to up the ante, I visited the local Kriya Yoga center here in Chicago to get some inspiration from Swami Kriyananda, the foremost living disciple of Yogananda. I was witness to a live feed via Skype of the old bearded man himself, who has many thousands of followers throughout the world. I listened intently to him for a message that could fuel me or at least steer me in the right direction. The Warrior within awoke as Kriyananda suggested that a life worth living is one in which you discover and pursue a mission worth dying for. You can't let yourself be limited by the "web of words," he said, referring to the cultural mindset around us. "Instead, create your own mantra."

Create my own mantras. Yes.

My inner guidance flickers and changes its message too often. Becoming a warrior is in large part mental, I know, and right now the natural "mantras" of my monkey mind are not empowering me. They change, they doubt. They point out how ridiculous I am. They sabotage with excuses and grievances that sound legitimate but do nothing to improve the quality of my life.

I know that to be equipped to battle for my own aliveness and the aliveness of others, I must think differently and be fueled by a different mindset. But, as Kriyananda reminded me, I have to create it. I have to choose this mindset. I have to rewrite my mental script in such a way that loose wiring becomes hard, and doubt insists on clarity. My power source must, at least in part, come from newly created mantras of my own design.

All right, Warrior, time to create.

Boomers vs. Gen Y…Who’s Winning in Corporate America?


The following press release was issued on April 4th by The Global Leaders.

Boomers vs. Gen Y, leadership vs. management, and uncommon truths to solve business problems in an unconventional manner are just a few of the topics that Kim Shepherd, CEO of Decision Toolbox will address at The Global Leaders’ first networking reception in Los Angeles, CA on Wednesday, May 11th.

Kim Shepherd, CEO of Decision Toolbox, former broadcast journalist and author of “The Bite Me School of Management:  Taking a Bite Out of Conventional Business Thinking” will bring her business wisdom, delivered with a sense of humor, and join The Global Leaders (TGL) at The Los Angeles Athletic Club the evening of Wednesday, May 11th as senior executives and local officials spend an evening networking with their peers from leading businesses, institutions and organizations in the greater Los Angeles area and around the world.

The Global Leaders brings together today’s leaders through their proprietary networking platform that hosts digital communities organized by industry, position and geography; allowing members to easily connect with their global peers and ‘network with purpose’.  Their members are senior level executives and the majority does not belong to any other online networks.  They come together on TGL’s platform to not only network, but also to seek best practices, share business development opportunities and find business talent.

Due to the popularity of the network, members have requested TGL host events so that they can continue to network “in-person”.  The Los Angeles event will be the second in a series of meetings that are being scheduled around the globe in 2011 and 2012.  Their first event in San Francisco, at the start of the year, hosted over 150 Chairmen, Board Members and C-level executives.

The Los Angeles event will also mark the debut of TGL In-PersonTM, a new registration system that allows each registrant to see who is coming and to request and schedule one-on-one meetings with participants before, during and after the event.

Executives interested in attending the Los Angeles event can register at http://www.jujama.com/tgl-inperson/5112011LAX.aspx .  To learn more about The Global Leaders visit http://www.tgleaders.com or contact Jayme Porkolab at 914-519-8071.

O'Reilly Conference Tungsten Talks and Some Welcome Open Source Progress

The O'Reilly MySQL 2011 conference is coming up fast.  It should be a good conference as it covers the increasingly diverse MySQL community and MySQL alternatives very well.   As usual, there are some painful choices about which talks to attend.  I'm doing two talks myself that I hope you have on your list:
  • Curing Replication Deprivation with Tungsten -- A tutorial together with my colleague Ed Archibald.  It covers everything you ever wanted to know about how to use parallel replication, handle multi-master/multi-source, replication to PostgreSQL/Oracle, etc.  We will have a short section at the end about how to build full clusters with Tungsten Enterprise.   Giuseppe Maxia is threatening to join and do some of his famous demos.  Apparently doing a tutorial on replication in the morning is not enough to tire him out. 
  • Preparing for the Big Oops: How to Build Disaster Recovery Sites for MySQL -- Survey of methods as well as things to have in mind when building a disaster recovery site.  This will cover everything I can think of, not just Tungsten.  
If you do not get your fill from our tutorial, Ed Archibald will also be doing another talk on Tungsten Enterprise explaining how you can build Database-as-a-service using Tungsten.   

Finally, the open source news.  We have been working on getting Tungsten Replicator fully open sourced including features like parallel replication, cool multi-master capabilities, and our fast disk log.  Getting there required jumping through a few hoops internally, but I'm happy to say the jumping is done.  As soon as we finish a couple of merges between branches we will post a full copy of Tungsten Replicator 2.0 on our new home at code.google.com under a GPL V2 license.  

It will take us a while to get used to the new bug tracker, wikis, and forums based on Google Groups, but we should be starting to settle in by 7 April when Giuseppe presents Advanced MySQL Replication for the Masses at the MySQL SFO meetup.  Come visit us!